Vardi’s Law
Experts predictions are always correct.
1. A certain portion of all predictions made by experts will be correct.
2. Human memory is short.
3. Make lot of forcasts, most of the people will remember the correct ones.
4. A good hedge: make contradictory predictions with intervals between them.
Ne parlano tutti: the Edge annual question 2004. E la domanda è: “What’s your law?” Ovvero qual è la legge che potrebbe portare il tuo nome, in quanto primo o più attento osservatore di fenomeni nuovi?
Ne parla Kottke (sarà per questo che ne parlano tutti.)
Nelle parole del New York Times:
More than 150 responses totaling more than 20,000 words have been posted so far at www.edge.org/q2004/q04_print.html. The respondents form an international gathering of what Mr. Brockman has called the “third culture” of scientists and science-oriented intellectuals who are, he believes, displacing traditional literary intellectuals in importance. They include figures like the scientists Freeman Dyson and Richard Dawkins, innovators and entrepreneurs like Ray Kurzweil and W. Daniel Hillis, younger mavericks like Douglas Rushkoff and senior mavericks like Stewart Brand, mathematicians, theoretical physicists, computer scientists, psychologists, linguists and journalists….